Nature-Based Solutions: Agriculture’s Best Defense Against Water Stress

By Lesley Atwood, PhD, Agriculture & Climate Scientist; Kari Vigerstol, Director of Water Security Science & Innovation | October 15, 2025

The sun sets over a vast field of corn crops. — Nature-based Solutions Archetypes for Nature-Based Adaptation offers a framework for addressing escalating water risk in food-producing regions throughcnature-based solutions. © Will Conkwright/TNC Photo Contest 2016

As the climate crisis intensifies, the convergence of risks to our global food, water and biodiversity systems is becoming impossible to ignore. Droughts are deepening, aquifers are depleting, floods are becoming more frequent and water quality is deteriorating—all with direct consequences for the landscapes that feed us and the ecosystems that we depend on. A new report, Archetypes for Nature-Based Adaptation, offers a timely and practical framework for addressing escalating water risk in food-producing regions through the strategic deployment of nature-based solutions (NbS).

The Water-Food Nexus: A System Under Stress

By 2050, climate-driven water stress will reshape the agricultural map:

Drought frequency will increase by over 70% across a quarter of the planet’s land, with some regions like North Africa facing spikes up to 2,500%.
Surface water stress will affect 36% of global land, with 86% of that area experiencing severe stress.
Groundwater stress is projected to rise by 30% globally.
Nutrient pollution will push one-third of Earth’s surface beyond safe nitrogen thresholds, threatening ecosystems and human health.
64% of freshwater biodiversity hotspots will be at risk, most outside protected areas.
Nutritional security is also at stake, with up to 25% of global crop nutrient production (including zinc, iron and vitamin A) at risk.

These impacts are not isolated. They are deeply interconnected, especially in regions that serve as agricultural powerhouses—from the Indo-Gangetic Plains to the U.S. Great Plains. The report’s modeling reveals that water-related climate threats to food production are widespread and particularly acute in highly productive areas. This shared vulnerability opens the door for cross-border collaboration and knowledge exchange.

A New Framework: Four Archetypes of Water Risk

To support landscape-level adaptation, the report introduces four archetypes of water-related risk in food-producing landscapes. Each archetype is paired with a set of nature-based solutions and enabling conditions necessary for successful implementation.

Pio Stefanelo in Brazil Pio Stefanelo is a participant in the Responsible Soy project in the Amazon. He produces sorghum, soy and rice and also keeps bees on his farm to produce honey. © Fernanda Preto

1. Surface Water Stress in Mixed Production Systems

As droughts intensify and rainfall declines, irrigation demand will surge—placing immense pressure on rivers, reservoirs and groundwater. In mixed agricultural systems, where urban and farming demands compete, NbS such as low water-use crops, efficient irrigation and reconnecting rivers to floodplains can help sustain stream flows and ecosystem resilience.

Cover Crops Interseeded cover crops grow between rows of corn. © Fauna Creative

2. Groundwater Stress in Irrigated Agriculture Systems

Groundwater depletion is most severe in intensively irrigated food production zones—the world’s breadbaskets. These regions face groundwater stress levels 133% higher than mixed mosaic systems. As surface water becomes scarcer, reliance on groundwater will grow, exacerbating the problem. NbS like ground cover, low water-use crops and floodplain reconnection can reduce irrigation needs and recharge aquifers. However, success depends on farmer engagement, impact monitoring and locally led groundwater management supported by policy and incentives.

Hope by the Handful Oyster restoration can help protect aquatic ecosystems. © Joe Klementovich

3. Water Quality in Intensive Agriculture Systems

Nutrient runoff from fertilizers—especially nitrogen and phosphorus—is expected to exceed ecological thresholds across 40% of the Earth’s surface by 2050. This runoff disrupts aquatic ecosystems, fuels harmful algal blooms and threatens drinking water supplies. NbS such as precision nutrient management, cover crops, riparian buffers and bivalve restoration can mitigate these impacts. Adoption at scale requires collaboration among stakeholders and supportive incentives like grants, pollution credits and reduced-input markets.

Mollicy Farms Floodplain TNC's Christopher Rice along Mollicy Farms floodplain in the Mississippi River Basin. © Ian Shive

4. Flooding in Diverse Agriculture Systems

With nearly a quarter of global croplands located in flood-prone areas, intensified flooding poses a growing threat. Floodplains are vital for regulating water flow, recharging groundwater and supporting biodiversity. NbS like floodplain restoration and riparian buffers can reduce flood damage while enhancing ecosystem services. Implementation requires cross-sector coordination, climate hazard monitoring and blended finance tools to manage risk and ensure economic viability.

Case Studies from The Nature Conservancy

**Ewaso Ng’iro River Basin Kenya** This landscape demonstrates how inclusive governance, shared goals and coordinated planning from farm to basin level are essential to scale NbS effectively. © L. Atwood, 2025

**Punjab Aquifers, India** Punjab’s aquifer crisis illustrates the urgent need for integrated water management and community-driven solutions. © Smita Sharma

**Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA** Efforts in the Chesapeake Bay show how targeted interventions and multi-sector partnerships can restore water quality while supporting agricultural productivity. © Severn Smith / TNC

**Puget Sound Floodplains, USA** This region highlights how floodplain protection can be integrated into broader climate resilience strategies. © Marlin Greene/One Earth Images

Lessons Learned: What enables successful implementation of NbS at landscape-scale?

Across all four archetypes, the report identifies key lessons learned for successful implementation of NbS at the landscape level:

Shared vision and inclusive governance: Solutions must be co-created with local communities and stakeholders.
Collaboration with existing efforts: Building on what’s already working accelerates impact.
Flexible and adaptive approaches: NbS must be tailored to local contexts and able to evolve with changing conditions.
Innovative financing models: Long-term sustainability depends on funding mechanisms that support continued relevance and effectiveness.

A Call to Action: Scaling Solutions Across Borders

The archetypes presented in this report are more than theoretical models—they are practical tools for scientists, practitioners and policymakers to apply in real-world contexts. These examples showcase ways landscape initiatives are actively bridging water and agricultural science to build resiliency into food systems in the face of climate change. By connecting seemingly disparate regions—like Punjab and California’s San Joaquin Valley—we can foster a global exchange of ideas and strategies for nature-based adaptation.

Water-related risks are escalating rapidly, threatening the very foundations of our food systems and ecosystems. But with coordinated action, grounded in science and driven by community, we can chart a path forward. The solutions are already being tested. Now is the time to accelerate use of them.

Archetypes for Nature-Based Adaptation

Download the report to learn how to successfully implement nature-based solutions at the landscape level.

Download

Global Insights

Check out our latest thinking and real-world solutions to some of the most complex challenges facing people and the planet today.

Explore Our Insights Get The Newsletter

Additional Reading

Doubling Down on Nature: State of Investment in Nature-based Solutions for Water Security

A new report examines the state of investment in NbS for water security, focusing on understanding whether the growing interest in NbS is translating into more investments on the ground.