Natural Gas Volatility Has Driven Rising Costs

The study found that renewable energy is not the primary driver of rising electricity costs in Connecticut. Instead, New England’s heavy reliance on natural gas, spending on transmission and distribution infrastructure, and broader inflationary pressures across the economy have been leading factors behind recent increases in electricity bills.

Between 2020 and 2025, residential electricity costs for Eversource customers increased by 27%. The analysis found that wholesale electricity prices continue to closely track the price of natural gas, which has experienced significant volatility and price increases in recent years. Those costs have ultimately been passed on to ratepayers. By contrast, state clean energy programs have remained a relatively small and stable share of customer electricity bills.

Renewable Energy Can Help Reduce and Stabilize Energy Costs

To test the economics of various energy options, Dunsky compared three scenarios: an energy system dominated by fossil fuels (natural gas), a least-cost mix regardless of energy source and an all-clean-energy mix. The analysis found that as New England’s electricity demand grows through 2050, the lowest-cost pathway for meeting rising demand will require a significant amount of renewable energy, especially offshore wind. The Dunsky Study shows that renewable energy resources will make up approximately 80% of new generation capacity in the lowest cost energy mix scenario.

The report concludes that expanding renewable energy is not only consistent with affordability goals, but also that it is needed to stabilize future energy costs. Unlike natural gas, renewable energy resources are often developed through fixed-price contracts that provide greater certainty around long-term energy costs. Offshore wind also has no fuel costs, helping reduce exposure to swings in global fuel markets that can affect electricity prices.

Offshore Wind Remains Competitive on Economics Alone

When all energy technologies are allowed to compete solely on the basis of cost, the modeling showed that significant offshore wind development remains a key part of the least-cost electricity mix for New England. That means it remains part of this least-cost mix even when environmental and climate benefits are excluded from consideration, and even when it was not required to help satisfy state carbon reduction targets or renewable energy standards.

The analysis concluded that relying entirely on fossil fuels and nuclear generation would ultimately be more expensive than a diversified portfolio that includes offshore wind.

A More Diversified Energy Portfolio Can Help Improve Reliability

According to regional grid operator ISO New England, the region is expected to become a winter-peaking electricity system by 2035, meaning electricity demand will be highest during the winter months. As winter demand increases, New England will require a diverse mix of reliable and affordable energy resources capable of meeting demand during periods of peak use. The study found that offshore wind is particularly well-suited to help meet this challenge. Along the Atlantic coast, offshore wind is strongest during the winter months, aligning closely with projected future demand patterns. At the same time, the region's natural gas infrastructure faces its greatest constraints during the winter, when gas is needed both for heating and electricity generation.

Including Climate Impacts Would Strengthen the Case for Offshore Wind

Notably, the analysis focused strictly on system costs and did not account for broader public health, climate or environmental benefits associated with reducing emissions.

The study’s findings suggest that policies supporting continued development of renewable energy like offshore wind can help Connecticut address its energy challenges while maintaining affordability, reliability and long-term economic competitiveness.