Media Statement: "Governments are approaching COP31 like they have time, in a year that’s already shown we don’t.”

As the UN Climate Change Conference COP31 approaches its midpoint in Antalya, Clare Shakya - The Nature Conservancy's Global Managing Director for Climate - shares her thoughts on the current state of play: 

“Governments are approaching COP31 like they have time, in a year that’s already shown we don’t.”

“As the midpoint approaches in Antalya, we’re still waiting for the presidency’s draft cover text, so a lot can and will change before COP31 concludes. But from the menu of possible action items that has been released, the test will be how much makes it through to the final text.

“Importantly, there’s acknowledgment that 2026 is on track to reach around +1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, so the +1.5°C overshoot is finally on the table. What matters now is that countries commit to cutting emissions fast enough to keep the overshoot as small and as short as possible, rather than kicking the can down the road and counting on carbon removals later.

“On energy, the 35% electrification goal is a sensible next step after the tripling of renewables and doubling of efficiency agreed at COP28 in Dubai. However, this target measures how much of our total energy is electric, not how clean that electricity is – so on its own it could be met with coal and gas. Unless the electrification goal sits alongside fossil fuel transition in the final text, COP31 will be rightly criticized as lacking ambition.

“Interestingly, we are finally seeing proposals for a working group specifically on mountainous regions. The Nepali glacier collapse in August killed thousands of people, with Indigenous communities hit hardest, and showed in stark terms what adaptation limits look like on the ground. And that’s the enormous elephant in the room here: developing countries need around $305 billion a year for adaptation by 2035, but they’re currently receiving about 10% of that. Even if we tripled adaptation finance, as agreed in Belém, it would still cover less than a third of what’s actually needed.

“That’s why it’s so encouraging to see momentum growing behind the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) in Antalya. The TFFF shows what’s possible when countries are willing to try something new: long-term, predictable finance that rewards countries and communities for keeping their forests standing. We need that same kind of innovation to close the adaptation gap, while making sure this money reaches the most vulnerable on the front lines.”