Seventy years ago, on September 21, 1938, the Long Island Express, a hurricane named for its sheer force and unprecedented speed, slammed into the coast of Long Island with an impact that registered on seismographs in Alaska.

The last hurricane to hit New England was in 1869 and few, including the experienced forecasters at the U.S. Weather Bureau, believed it could happen again. But the Long Island Express moved at an extreme speed over warm waters. When it did strike ground as a Category 3 just a few hours before high tide, residents of Long Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island were caught off-guard and unprepared.

Just 12 hours later, the hurricane had moved on, leaving more than 600 people dead, 8,900 homes destroyed, and $4.7 billion of damage inflicted. Even the geographic shape of the Long Island had been physically altered: 12 new inlets were created by the surge and Montauk was temporarily an island.

Today, the Long Island Express remains the worst hurricane ever to hit the Northeast coast. And according to many experts, we’re long overdue for a follow-up.

Could the Big Apple = the Big Easy?

Things have changed since 1938. Forecasting and storm-tracking science has improved immensely, while satellites, radar, and other state-of-the-art technologies ensure that no storm, large or small, goes unnoticed. More recently, tragic mistakes made during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita have seared in the public’s mind the power and devastation natural disasters can bring. 

Yet even as our ability to predict storms advances, in many ways New York is no safer or more prepared now than it was seventy years ago. Despite the devastation in 1938, Long Island now boasts a population of approximately 2.83 million people with many concentrated along the coast. Over 90 percent of New York State’s human population is squeezed into about 1,850 miles of tidal shoreline.

Complicating matters is the issue of climate change. As sea level rises, New York City and Long Island become even more vulnerable to storm surge flooding. A rise of just 18 inches, combined with the storm surge from a Category 3 hurricane, would leave much of New York City and Long Island underwater and the entire metropolitan transportation system shut down.

Experts now consider New York City to be the third most dangerous major city for the next hurricane disaster. It’s time to ask ourselves: are we prepared?

People Get Ready

The most effective way to prepare for a hurricane is to get out of the way. In places like Long Island, this means keeping new homes and other buildings away from the shore. In areas where relocation is not an option, like New York City and already developed parts of Long Island, studies recommend retrofitting vulnerable structures and developing airtight storm evacuation plans.

With these threats in mind, The Nature Conservancy has initiated a new partnership to help decision makers keep the environment and public safety at the forefront. The Coastal Resilience Project, a collaboration between public, private, academic and not-for-profit institutions, will deliver tools including interactive maps and alternative future scenarios that can help guide decisions that take into account rising sea levels and coastal hazards. 

More specifically, the Coastal Resiliance Project will:

• Generate better predictions of sea-level rise and hazards
• Develop visualization tools for decision makers
• Address sea-level rise & storm hazards in land-use planning
• Limit post-disaster reconstruction in vulnerable areas
• Prioritize key areas for conservation
• Promote tax incentives for landowners to pursue conservation options that accommodate sea-level rise

Nature picture credits (top to bottom, left to right): Photo © NOAA (Pier washed away by storm flooding); Photo © istockphoto/James Pauls (LI aerial view); Photo © NOAA (Storm surge hits NYC Battery); Photo © NOAA (Workers clean beach).