Rising Waters is a collaborative effort designed to develop adaptive strategies to protect the Hudson Valley's environment, economy and quality of life from threats associated with climate change.

Using a formal scenario development process, originally created by Royal Dutch Shell, to model plausible futures in a changing climate, participants consider possible impacts of climate change on Hudson Valley communities and the environment, and how various types of human response over a 20-year period might change them. 

Nature.org recently spoke with Katie Dolan, executive director for the Eastern New York Chapter about the multi-stakeholder scenario process and how Hudson Valley communities can adapt to climate change.

Nature.org: Rising Waters is described as a multi-stakeholder scenario process. Can you explain what this means?

Katie Dolan: The stakeholders are the diverse group of more than 160 regional Hudson Valley representatives that participated in the project. These include emergency responders, railroad companies, waterfront business owners, insurers, wastewater treatment plant operators, government agencies, environmental groups and others.

Scenario planning is a methodology used to visualize the future. It is not the same thing as forecasting, but rather a tool that is used to think about the future. In the case of the Rising Waters project, participants considered a future that spanned from 2010 through 2030. Through the process, we created four scenarios or stories, if you will, as a way to educate the group about climate change in the Hudson Valley, and as a portfolio for testing potential actions and response strategies for climate change adaptation. 

Nature.org: The Rising Waters project focuses on adaptation rather than mitigation. What do you mean by adaptation?

Dolan: Much of the discussion surrounding climate change focuses on mitigation and the kinds of action aimed at preventing further greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Mitigation efforts need to continue. At the same time, we know that climate change is already underway in the Hudson Valley and we need to strengthen the capacity of the region to adapt to these changes. Through the Rising Waters project, we recommend several community- and nature-based strategies that can, over time, reduce the vulnerability of Hudson Valley communities to the risks posed by climate change. 

Nature.org: What kind of recommendations surfaced as a result of the process?

Dolan: Among the recommended strategies are to improve preparedness for extreme weather events; guide future development out of flood-prone areas; improve the resiliency of the Hudson Valley’s shorelines, natural systems, and critical infrastructure; and create a state climate change adaptation fund. Also among the report’s recommendations is the conservation of healthy forest, wetland and river ecosystems as well as agricultural resources because they are vital to successful climate change adaptation.

The report scenarios and evaluation methodologies provide a framework to allow local governments, communities, individuals, conservation practitioners, transportation officials, emergency responders and others to work collaboratively and proactively to increase their preparedness and adaptive capacity to climate change.

Nature.org: What happens next? 

Dolan: Several coalitions—Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Planning, Floodplain Management for Resilience, Shorelines Protection and Management for Resilience, Green Technologies and Land Use Planning, and Climate Change Adaptation Funding—have been formed around the key recommendations.
 
As the project moves from planning to implementation, the coalitions will seek to move the recommended strategies forward. In order to share the work of the coalitions among participants, a series of quarterly meetings are planned, as is a broader stakeholder meeting scheduled for April 2010.
 

Rising Waters is a collaborative effort of the Eastern New York Chapter of The Nature Conservancy and its partners; NYS DEC Hudson River Estuary Program, Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve, Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies, NYS Water Resource Institute at Cornell University and Sustainable Hudson Valley.

Nature picture credits (top to bottom, left to right): Photo © masck/Creative Commons (Hudson River); Photo © Sarah Macmillan/Creative Commons (fishing).