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By Megan Fetzer Sheehan
Can a computer program predict the future of fresh water?
The Nature Conservancy is working with IBM and other partners in Brazil to do just that along South America's Paraguay-Parana River system.
A new computerized tool produced by the partnership will help freshwater managers make effective conservation decisions about river systems and surrounding lands — by forecasting the potential impacts of those decisions on fresh water quality and quantity. For instance:
- How will converting standing forest to agricultural land along a riverbank affect native fish that local people depend on for food?
- Where can we target land conservation efforts that benefit terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity?
Flowing Technology into River Management
The Conservancy’s new tool — being developed in partnership with IBM, the University of Wisconsin’s Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), and Brazil's Water Agency and local institutions — is designed to help local governments, farmers and ranchers in the Paraguay-Parana River basin understand what factors lead to water scarcity and impurity.
“The lack of suitable water for people and for nature is a growing international crisis," says Brian Richter, co-director of the Conservancy’s Global Freshwater Team.
“Our partnership with IBM represents the kind of innovation and creativity necessary to preserve freshwater systems at scales that can really make a difference.”
The tool runs scenarios in a simulated 3-D environment — enabling users to experiment with different variables and understand which factors could impact the river system.
The tool will help answer questions such as:
- What is the relationship between changes in native plants and vegetation and water quality?
- Where should forest and native vegetation restoration be targeted to maximize improvement in water quality and flow?
- Where are the best places to create national parks and protected areas in order to benefit river system integrity?
- How is the integrity of each river affected by different land uses such as agriculture, ranching and development?
A Cascade of Positive Impacts
And the tool's visual modeling could help improve the planning and coordination between governments, farmers and ranchers who rely on the Paraguay-Parana River system.
“Our goal is to have sustainable management of land and water resources, ensuring the long-term viability of natural ecosystems and the benefits that they provide to people,” said Paul West, the Conservancy’s lead scientist on the project.
Improved planning and coordination should also increase the integrity of the river system through:
- The creation of more sustainable land- and water-use policies;
- Improved conservation of fresh water and terrestrial biodiversity;
- Improved selection of national parks and protected areas;
- More secure sources of safe drinking water for local communities;
- Improved management of fisheries; and
- More sustainable agricultural practices.
Understanding the impacts to the Paraguay-Parana River system will help governments set management policies that benefit the rivers and the residents who rely on their healthy waters for survival.
“Working with IBM, we hope to help stakeholders take an integrated, collaborative approach in understanding the impact of policies on the sustainability of rivers and streams,” says West.
Megan Sheehan is a marketing specialist with The Nature Conservancy.
(March 2008)
Nature picture credits (top to bottom, left to right): Photo © Scott Warren (Parana River system); Photo © Scott Warren (Parana River System).
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