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Join the Conversation
You can discuss this article at The Nature Conservancy’s gather.com homepage. Just create a gather.com account and visit tnc.gather.com to make your voice heard.
Dig DeeperThe Next Big Idea in Conservation: We Want to Hear from YouTell us what you think about our climate change work. What do you think are the biggest impacts of climate change? |
The world has come to a consensus: Climate change is happening now, and human activity is primarily responsible. But what's next?
We talked with Bill Stanley, science lead for The Nature Conservancy’s Climate Change Team, about how change is affecting global ecology and people. How is the Conservancy confronting the challenge of climate change and how can the average person can make a difference? Stanley answers these questions and more below.
Nature.org: How do we know that climate change is happening?
Bill Stanley: Some of the most compelling evidence comes from ice core data. You can look back over 650,000 years and, from bubbles trapped during snowfall, you can determine carbon dioxide levels and corresponding periods of heating and cooling.
Carbon concentrations are close to doubling since the beginning of industrial times and are higher than they have been in the past 650,000 years, which is as far back as we can use science to look. So, this is not a natural climate change event. Melting glaciers, melting ice caps in the Arctic, rising sea levels, the rate of increase in measured temperatures themselves—when you look at all of these together, there’s your smoking gun.
Nature.org: What global ecological impacts can we expect?
Bill Stanley: Some places won’t be dramatically affected and some conservation targets may even flourish, but these are probably exceptions. Extinction rates from 15 to 37 percent between now and 2050 are predicted unless emissions that cause warming are reigned in.
Coral reefs are particularly sensitive to warming ocean waters, so the mass coral bleaching we saw in 1998 gives us an idea what to expect. Sea level rise is affecting low lying areas, including a lot of sites where we work.
Some natural communities are disappearing from the tops of mountains and others are moving up to take their place — for example, forests taking over alpine grasslands. Flowering and snow melt are happening earlier, disrupting natural processes.
Nature.org: What about impacts to people?
Bill Stanley: Links have already been made between warmer waters and increasing hurricane intensity. If barrier islands that serve as natural storm buffers are drowned, we stand to lose important habitat and suffer greater destruction. Diseases such as malaria and dengue fever could spread. The elderly and sick will be vulnerable to heat waves, especially in poor areas without air conditioning.
Nature.org: All this sounds grim. Is there any hope for a solution?
Bill Stanley: One of the most promising things is that the public has really caught up to the issue, especially within the past year. Legislation is being proposed, and it’s possible that we’ll have policies to constrain emissions within a year. Forest protection and restoration — work we’re already doing — are part of the solution. It’s not too late to avoid the worst consequences.
Nature.org: How is the Conservancy confronting climate change?
Bill Stanley: We have three different components to our strategy. First, mobilize governments to reduce the pace and severity of climate change. The Conservancy has joined the U.S. Climate Action Partnership (USCAP), a group of leading businesses and organizations that support significantly curbing carbon emissions. One of the reasons the Conservancy joined USCAP is to shine a spotlight on strategies to help ecosystems and wildlife adapt to an already changing planet.
We’re also supporting the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a group of nine northeastern states that have pledged to reduce their emissions. The Conservancy's climate change program in California is leading work to ensure that state climate policies there are strong and protect our conservation areas. These state and regional programs will help drive federal policy. And when the United States comes to the international table, that’ll help bring in countries like Australia and China.
Second is reducing emissions from deforestation, which contributes about 20 percent of carbon dioxide emissions annually. We’ve built a strong foundation from working in places like Belize, Bolivia and Brazil, but we need to greatly expand upon these efforts. We’re working with governments and institutions such as the World Bank to develop pilot programs and establish incentives for curbing deforestation.
Finally, we’re taking climate change into account in our conservation planning. We’re looking at the future to figure out where sea level is going to be, where things are likely to move. We need to make sure that nature has somewhere to go. To this end we are assessing anticipated climate change impacts and designing regional networks of conservation areas that will be resilient to them. We need to do this everywhere we work.
Nature.org: Can the average person make a difference?
Bill Stanley: This issue affects everyone on the planet, and there are things each and every one of us can do. We can use energy efficient appliances and light bulbs, walk more and drive less. We can also get an estimate of our own personal contribution to climate change, by using the Conservancy’s carbon calculator, so we know where we need to make the biggest changes. As part of the conservation community, we can talk to people about climate change. We can affect public opinion and influence policy.
Join the Conversation: Click here to discuss this article at The Nature Conservacy's gather.com page.
Nature picture credits (top to bottom, left to right): Photo © Mark Godfrey/TNC (logs from deforestation); Photo © Erika Nortemann/TNC(Bill Stanley).
